Session 1RLdmSCZDRlm

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab</path>
<type>directory</type>
<entries>
.git/
.github/
.gitignore
cases/
data/
docs/
package-lock.json
package.json
PROTOCOL.md
pyproject.toml
README.md
research/
schema/
scripts/
src/
tests/
uv.lock

(17 entries)
</entries>

/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/README.md
/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/uv.lock
/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/tests/test_model_policy.py
/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/tests/test_source_retrieval.py
/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/tests/test_source_enrichment.py
/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/tests/test_robustness.py
/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/tests/test_phases.py
/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/tests/test_oss_metrics.py
/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/tests/test_oss_ingest.py
/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/tests/test_llm_triage_compare.py
/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/tests/test_llm_event_probe.py
/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/tests/test_llm_candidate_triage.py
/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/tests/test_llm_benchmark_subset.py
/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/tests/test_llm_benchmark_gate.py
/home/byk/Cod...

{"body":"## Objective\n\nConduct a source-level, performance-blinded adjudication of every record in the frozen 40-record governance-coding corpus before any canonical power graph is created.\n\n## Frozen inputs\n\n- Governance coding protocol v1.2\n- Successful frozen artifact: Actions run `33063470968`, artifact `9642983578`\n- Exact 40-document bundle hash: `d70f7f795847968339a645b6dbd6d4428af6bd6044de44fa2602d4c4343b0ee9`\n- Treat run `33086454759` only as a stochastic repeat; do not replace the frozen v1.2 codings with it.\n\n## Method constraints\n\n- Keep repository performance outcomes and detected transition dates hidden.\n- Review the underlying source body/patch evidence, not only model summaries.\n- Record explicit `accept`, `revise`, `reject`, or `abstain` decisions.\n- Preserve evidence references and source URLs for every accepted fact.\n- Do not call the result “human adjudication” if an LLM performs any review; record reviewer type and assistance.\n- Gemini 3.7 Flash ...

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/README.md</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: # Institutional Transition Lab
2: 
3: An empirical research workspace for testing whether changes in leadership and
4: the distribution of organizational power precede changes in economic or
5: open-source project performance.
6: 
7: The motivating theory comes from *Why Nations Fail*, but this project does not
8: assume that an organization has a single, directly observable
9: "inclusive/extractive" score. Instead, it treats institutions as a versioned
10: graph of decision rights and asks a narrower, falsifiable question:
11: 
12: > When control rights become more concentrated, contestable, or distributed,
13: > does the probability of entering a growth, stagnation, or decline regime
14: > change—and through which observable organizational mechanisms?
15: 
16: This is an observational research program, not yet a causal model. ...

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/src/institution_lab/governance_coding.py</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: """Prepare and validate performance-blinded coding of enriched governance records."""
2: 
3: from __future__ import annotations
4: 
5: import argparse
6: import hashlib
7: import json
8: import math
9: from collections import Counter
10: from datetime import date
11: from pathlib import Path
12: from typing import Any
13: 
14: RECORD_CLASSES = {
15:     "effective_institutional_change",
16:     "announced_institutional_change",
17:     "proposal_only",
18:     "control_event",
19:     "no_event",
20:     "abstain",
21: }
22: EVENT_KINDS = {
23:     "leadership",
24:     "board_or_steering",
25:     "control_rights",
26:     "reorganization",
27:     "foundation_transfer",
28:     "license",
29:     "fork",
30:     "reunification",
31:     "strategy",
32:     "product",
33:     "external",
34: }
35: RIGHT_KINDS = {
36:     "appoint",
37:     "remove",
38:     ...

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/tests/test_governance_coding.py</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: from __future__ import annotations
2: 
3: import json
4: from pathlib import Path
5: 
6: from institution_lab.governance_coding import (
7:     BODY_PATCH_RELATIONS,
8:     CHANGE_STATUSES,
9:     DIRECTIONS,
10:     EVENT_KINDS,
11:     MODEL_INPUT_FIELDS,
12:     RECORD_CLASSES,
13:     RESPONSE_KEYS,
14:     RIGHT_KINDS,
15:     compare_codings,
16:     prepare_coding_bundle,
17:     validate_response,
18: )
19: 
20: 
21: def test_frozen_json_schema_matches_validator_ontology() -> None:
22:     schema = json.loads(Path("schema/governance-coding-v1.schema.json").read_text())
23:     properties = schema["properties"]
24:     assert set(schema["required"]) == RESPONSE_KEYS
25:     assert set(properties["record_class"]["enum"]) == RECORD_CLASSES
26:     assert set(properties["event_kind"]["enum"]) - {None} == EVENT_KINDS
27:     assert ...

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/schema/governance-coding-v1.schema.json</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: {
2:   "$schema": "https://json-schema.org/draft/2020-12/schema",
3:   "$id": "https://github.com/BYK/institutional-transition-lab/schema/governance-coding-v1.schema.json",
4:   "title": "Performance-blinded governance coding v1",
5:   "type": "object",
6:   "additionalProperties": false,
7:   "required": ["record_class", "event_kind", "title", "announced_on", "effective_on", "affected_scope", "body_patch_relation", "power_changes", "confidence", "ambiguity"],
8:   "properties": {
9:     "record_class": {"enum": ["effective_institutional_change", "announced_institutional_change", "proposal_only", "control_event", "no_event", "abstain"]},
10:     "event_kind": {"type": ["string", "null"], "enum": ["leadership", "board_or_steering", "control_rights", "reorganization", "foundation_transfer", "license", "fork", "reunification", "strategy", "product", "external", ...

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/research/oss-governance-coding-protocol-v1.2.md</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: # Performance-blinded OSS governance coding protocol v1.2
2: 
3: Date frozen: 2026-08-27  
4: Status: pre-adjudication evaluator correction; model-informed development protocol
5: 
6: ## Correction
7: 
8: The V1.1 run used the intended frozen 40-record manifest and unchanged coders.
9: Its mandatory artifact audit found that the evaluator's field named “strict
10: edge agreement” compared actor, right, target, direction, and status but omitted
11: edge scope and evidence references. It also did not route disagreements in the
12: separately coded body/patch relationship. Six records were consequently called
13: `provisional_exact_agreement` despite material differences.
14: 
15: V1.2 corrects the evaluator before any source adjudication or canonical graph
16: construction:
17: 
18: - strict edge signatures now include scope and the complete grounded ...

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/research/oss-governance-coding-results-v1.2.md</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: # Performance-blinded OSS governance coding results v1.2
2: 
3: Date completed: 2026-08-27  
4: Status: frozen development result; source adjudication required
5: 
6: ## Result
7: 
8: The performance-blinded review is complete for the frozen 40-record enriched
9: audit envelope. Two isolated Luna-medium coders saw only source text and
10: allowlisted bibliographic fields. They did not receive retrieval scores,
11: selection reasons, prior model predictions, performance data, fitted transition
12: dates, record IDs, or source URLs. Terra-xhigh then provided an advisory third
13: coding only for the strict disagreement route.
14: 
15: No model output was admitted to the canonical event ledger or power graph.
16: 
17: | Measure | Result |
18: | --- | ---: |
19: | Frozen records | 40 |
20: | Luna event-class agreement | 67.5% |
21: | Luna complete ...

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/.github/workflows/continue-governance-coding.yml</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: name: Continue frozen governance coding
2: 
3: on:
4:   workflow_dispatch:
5: 
6: permissions:
7:   actions: read
8:   contents: read
9:   copilot-requests: write
10: 
11: concurrency:
12:   group: continue-governance-coding-${{ github.ref }}
13:   cancel-in-progress: true
14: 
15: env:
16:   SOURCE_RUN_ID: "33060493337"
17:   SOURCE_ARTIFACT: oss-governance-retrieval-v2-9ba7d77baec0b001649a4d455330a9fe298a05e9
18: 
19: jobs:
20:   continue-coding:
21:     runs-on: ubuntu-latest
22:     timeout-minutes: 30
23:     steps:
24:       - uses: actions/checkout@v7
25:         with:
26:           persist-credentials: false
27: 
28:       - uses: actions/setup-python@v7
29:         with:
30:           python-version: "3.12"
31: 
32:       - name: Install uv
33:         uses: astral-sh/setup-uv@20cfd1bf945f4377ade1205e4dbc17946fc9a30d # v10.0.1
34:         ...

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/scripts/copilot-code-governance.mjs</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: import { mkdir, readFile, writeFile } from "node:fs/promises";
2: import { tmpdir } from "node:os";
3: import { dirname, resolve } from "node:path";
4: import { pathToFileURL } from "node:url";
5: import { createHash } from "node:crypto";
6: 
7: const MODELS = new Set(["gpt-5.6-luna", "gpt-5.6-terra"]);
8: const EFFORTS = new Set(["low", "medium", "high", "xhigh", "max"]);
9: const DISABLED_TOOLS = ["builtin:*", "mcp:*", "custom:*"];
10: const INPUT_FIELDS = Object.freeze([
11:   "entity_id",
12:   "publisher",
13:   "published_on",
14:   "source_type",
15:   "sources",
16:   "evidence_bounds",
17: ]);
18: const DOCUMENT_KEYS = new Set(["record_id", "source_url", ...INPUT_FIELDS]);
19: const TIMEOUT_MS = 180_000;
20: 
21: const SYSTEM_PROMPT = `You are one independent coder of organizational governance records. ...

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/src/institution_lab/source_retrieval.py</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: """Outcome-independent retrieval of OSS governance-source candidates."""
2: 
3: from __future__ import annotations
4: 
5: import argparse
6: import hashlib
7: import json
8: import os
9: import re
10: from collections import defaultdict
11: from dataclasses import dataclass, replace
12: from datetime import date, datetime
13: from pathlib import Path
14: from typing import Any
15: 
16: import yaml
17: 
18: from .github_client import GitHubRestClient
19: 
20: FORBIDDEN_QUERY_QUALIFIERS = re.compile(
21:     r"(?:^|\s)(?:repo|org|user|created|updated|closed|merged|is|type|in|sort|order):",
22:     re.IGNORECASE,
23: )
24: CHANGE_TERMS = (
25:     "adopt",
26:     "appoint",
27:     "change",
28:     "create",
29:     "elect",
30:     "establish",
31:     "fork",
32:     "form",
33:     "grant",
34:     "join",
35:     "launch",
36:     "merge",
37:     ...

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/src/institution_lab/source_enrichment.py</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: """Build and enrich the fail-safe governance-source audit envelope."""
2: 
3: from __future__ import annotations
4: 
5: import argparse
6: import hashlib
7: import json
8: import os
9: import re
10: from pathlib import Path
11: from typing import Any
12: 
13: from .github_client import GitHubRestClient
14: 
15: RELEVANT = re.compile(
16:     r"(?:^|[/_.-])(governance|charter|steering|maintainer|committer|conduct|"
17:     r"license|trademark|voting|election|committee|foundation)(?:[/_.-]|$)",
18:     re.IGNORECASE,
19: )
20: PATCH_TERMS = re.compile(
21:     r"\b(governance|steering|maintainer|committer|appoint|remove|vote|veto|"
22:     r"delegate|license|trademark|authority|oversight)\b",
23:     re.IGNORECASE,
24: )
25: 
26: 
27: def _objects(payload: object, key: str) -> list[dict[str, Any]]:
28:     if not isinstance(payload, dict) or not ...

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/tests/test_source_enrichment.py</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: from __future__ import annotations
2: 
3: import hashlib
4: 
5: import httpx
6: 
7: from institution_lab.github_client import GitHubRestClient
8: from institution_lab.source_enrichment import build_audit_envelope, enrich_envelope
9: 
10: 
11: def test_envelope_is_fail_safe_union() -> None:
12:     audit = {
13:         "required_query_ids": ["governance", "veto"],
14:         "candidates": [
15:             {"document_id": "narrow", "matched_query_ids": ["governance"]},
16:             {"document_id": "model", "matched_query_ids": ["license"]},
17:             {"document_id": "both", "matched_query_ids": ["veto"]},
18:             {"document_id": "neither", "matched_query_ids": ["license"]},
19:         ],
20:     }
21:     queue = [
22:         {"document": {"document_id": "model"}, "prediction": {"decision": "abstain"}},
23:         {
24:             "document": ...

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/.github/workflows/retrieve-oss-governance.yml</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: name: Retrieve and triage OSS governance sources
2: 
3: on:
4:   workflow_dispatch:
5:   push:
6:     branches: [main]
7:     paths:
8:       - .github/workflows/retrieve-oss-governance.yml
9:       - cases/retrieval/oss-governance-development-v2.yaml
10:       - cases/review/oss-governance-enriched-envelope-v1.json
11:       - cases/model-selection/event-triage-v1.json
12:       - pyproject.toml
13:       - scripts/copilot-extract-events.mjs
14:       - scripts/copilot-code-governance.mjs
15:       - schema/governance-coding-v1.schema.json
16:       - research/oss-governance-coding-protocol-v1.md
17:       - research/oss-governance-coding-protocol-v1.1.md
18:       - src/institution_lab/contracts.py
19:       - src/institution_lab/github_client.py
20:       - src/institution_lab/llm_candidate_triage.py
21:       - ...

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/cases/review/oss-governance-enriched-envelope-v1.json</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: {
2:   "design_status": "frozen_model_informed_development",
3:   "envelope_id": "oss-governance-enriched-envelope-v1",
4:   "outcome_data_used": false,
5:   "record_count": 40,
6:   "record_ids_sha256": "9d5a61d1e39189414ae99104c7e00e98ce53b8236c4a890c1beaf9a690fb7283",
7:   "records": [
8:     {
9:       "record_id": "opentofu-github-issue-1353",
10:       "selection_reasons": [
11:         "narrow_query"
12:       ]
13:     },
14:     {
15:       "record_id": "opentofu-github-issue-2109",
16:       "selection_reasons": [
17:         "narrow_query"
18:       ]
19:     },
20:     {
21:       "record_id": "opentofu-github-issue-2573",
22:       "selection_reasons": [
23:         "narrow_query"
24:       ]
25:     },
26:     {
27:       "record_id": "opentofu-github-issue-258",
28:       "selection_reasons": [
29:         "narrow_query"
30:       ...

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/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/README.md:
  Line 183: data/raw/               immutable fetched artifacts (not committed by default)

  Line 229: report as a workflow artifact. It runs automatically when the case manifest,

  Line 241: artifact, corpus, and label hashes that selected it.

  Line 244: queue, not a canonical power graph or a causal finding. The performance-blinded

  Line 270: provenance notes, labels, thresholds, and prior results stay outside the

  Line 282: precision/recall, announcement-date accuracy, evidence grounding, and recall

  Line 286: (missing, malformed, ungrounded, or non-allowlisted input metadata) fails the

  Line 288: uploaded artifact rather than being disguised as an infrastructure failure.

  Line 334: writing the event ledger or canonical power graph. ...

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/pyproject.toml</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: [build-system]
2: requires = ["hatchling"]
3: build-backend = "hatchling.build"
4: 
5: [project]
6: name = "institutional-transition-lab"
7: version = "0.1.0"
8: description = "Empirical analysis of institutional power transitions and performance regimes"
9: readme = "README.md"
10: requires-python = ">=3.12"
11: dependencies = []
12: 
13: [project.scripts]
14: institution-lab-oss = "institution_lab.oss_pipeline:main"
15: institution-lab-llm-eval = "institution_lab.llm_event_probe:main"
16: institution-lab-llm-triage = "institution_lab.llm_candidate_triage:main"
17: institution-lab-retrieve-oss-sources = "institution_lab.source_retrieval:main"
18: institution-lab-enrich-oss-sources = "institution_lab.source_enrichment:main"
19: institution-lab-governance-coding = "institution_lab.governance_coding:main"
20: 
21: [project.optional-dependencies]
22: analysis = [
23:   ...

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/package.json</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: {
2:   "name": "institutional-transition-lab-reports",
3:   "private": true,
4:   "version": "0.1.0",
5:   "type": "module",
6:   "engines": {
7:     "node": ">=22.12"
8:   },
9:   "scripts": {
10:     "reports:preview": "notebooks preview --root docs",
11:     "reports:build": "node scripts/build-reports.mjs"
12:   },
13:   "dependencies": {
14:     "@observablehq/notebook-kit": "2.3.0"
15:   }
16: }

(End of file - total 16 lines)
</content>

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/PROTOCOL.md</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: # Research protocol
2: 
3: ## The object being predicted
4: 
5: The useful output is not an after-the-fact inclusivity score. It is a forecast
6: made at time `t`:
7: 
8: ```text
9: probability of the next regime
10:     = model(
11:         current regime and trajectory,
12:         recent changes in decision rights,
13:         observable cultural/operational mediators,
14:         entity and market controls,
15:         measurement uncertainty
16:       )
17: ```
18: 
19: For a software engineer, the closest analogy is a state machine with a learned
20: transition function. ...

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/schema/core.sql</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: -- DuckDB schema: normalized facts, versioned evidence, and analysis outputs.
2: 
3: CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS analysis_run (
4:     run_id VARCHAR PRIMARY KEY,
5:     created_at TIMESTAMP NOT NULL,
6:     git_commit VARCHAR,
7:     config_sha256 VARCHAR NOT NULL,
8:     code_sha256 VARCHAR,
9:     notes VARCHAR
10: );
11: 
12: CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS entity (
13:     entity_id VARCHAR PRIMARY KEY,
14:     entity_kind VARCHAR NOT NULL,
15:     label VARCHAR NOT NULL,
16:     valid_from DATE,
17:     valid_to DATE
18: );
19: 
20: CREATE TABLE IF NOT EXISTS segment (
21:     segment_id VARCHAR PRIMARY KEY,
22:     entity_id VARCHAR NOT NULL REFERENCES entity(entity_id),
23:     canonical_label VARCHAR NOT NULL,
24:     issuer_label VARCHAR,
25:     dimension_kind VARCHAR NOT NULL,
26:     valid_from DATE,
27:     valid_to DATE,
28:     mapping_source_id VARCHAR
29: );
30: 
31: ...

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/src/institution_lab/event_inventory.py</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: """Validated, outcome-independent event inventories for case reports."""
2: 
3: from __future__ import annotations
4: 
5: import hashlib
6: from dataclasses import asdict, dataclass
7: from datetime import date
8: from pathlib import Path
9: 
10: import yaml
11: 
12: from .contracts import EventKind, InstitutionalEvent
13: 
14: 
15: def _parse_date(value: str | date | None) -> date | None:
16:     if value is None or isinstance(value, date):
17:         return value
18:     return date.fromisoformat(value)
19: 
20: 
21: @dataclass(frozen=True, slots=True)
22: class EventInventoryRecord:
23:     event_id: str
24:     entity_id: str
25:     event_kind: str
26:     event_role: str
27:     title: str
28:     announced_on: date | None
29:     effective_on: date | None
30:     affected_scope: str
31:     power_change: str
32:     coding_status: str
33:     ...

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/tests/test_event_inventory.py</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: from pathlib import Path
2: 
3: from institution_lab.event_inventory import load_event_inventory
4: 
5: 
6: def test_loads_seed_event_inventory() -> None:
7:     events, sources = load_event_inventory(
8:         Path("cases/projects/terraform-opentofu.events.yaml")
9:     )
10: 
11:     assert len(events) == 12
12:     assert len(sources) == 13
13:     assert {event.event_role for event in events} == {"institutional", "control"}
14:     assert all(not event.reviewer_blinded_to_outcome for event in events)
15:     assert all(source.url.startswith("https://") for source in sources)

(End of file - total 15 lines)
</content>

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/.github/workflows/ci.yml</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: name: CI
2: 
3: on:
4:   push:
5:     branches: [main]
6:   pull_request:
7: 
8: permissions:
9:   contents: read
10: 
11: jobs:
12:   validate:
13:     runs-on: ubuntu-latest
14:     steps:
15:       - uses: actions/checkout@v7
16:         with:
17:           persist-credentials: false
18: 
19:       - uses: actions/setup-python@v7
20:         with:
21:           python-version: "3.12"
22: 
23:       - name: Install uv
24:         uses: astral-sh/setup-uv@20cfd1bf945f4377ade1205e4dbc17946fc9a30d # v10.0.1
25:         with:
26:           enable-cache: true
27: 
28:       - name: Install Python dependencies
29:         run: uv sync --locked --extra analysis --dev
30: 
31:       - name: Test and lint Python
32:         run: |
33:           uv run pytest -q
34:           uv run ruff check src tests
35: 
36:       - uses: actions/setup-node@v7
37:         with:
38:           ...

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/scripts/build-reports.mjs</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: import {readdirSync, rmSync} from "node:fs";
2: import {spawnSync} from "node:child_process";
3: import {fileURLToPath} from "node:url";
4: 
5: const repositoryRoot = fileURLToPath(new URL("../", import.meta.url));
6: const docsDirectory = fileURLToPath(new URL("../docs/", import.meta.url));
7: const cacheDirectory = fileURLToPath(new URL("../docs/.observable/cache", import.meta.url));
8: const notebookCli = fileURLToPath(
9:   new URL(
10:     "../node_modules/@observablehq/notebook-kit/dist/bin/notebooks.js",
11:     import.meta.url,
12:   ),
13: );
14: 
15: // Interpreter results are keyed by cell source, not by files read inside the
16: // cell. Removing only the generated interpreter cache prevents stale reports
17: // when the pipeline refreshes a CSV without changing notebook source code. ...

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/research/oss-governance-enriched-audit-envelope-v1.md</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: # Enriched OSS governance audit envelope v1
2: 
3: Date run: 2026-08-27  
4: Status: development safety mechanism; not holdout evidence
5: 
6: ## Design
7: 
8: The V2 source corpus contains 225 bounded GitHub issue and pull-request bodies.
9: Luna-medium compresses that corpus, but the prior audit showed that model
10: confidence and grounded quotations do not establish whether a proposal merged
11: or whether its claimed rights match the final patch.
12: 
13: The fail-safe envelope is the deterministic union of every result from the
14: frozen `governance`, `steering committee`, or `veto` queries and every
15: schema-valid Luna `institutional_event` or `abstain` response. ...

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/research/oss-governance-coding-protocol-v1.1.md</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: # Performance-blinded OSS governance coding protocol v1.1
2: 
3: Date frozen: 2026-08-27  
4: Status: pre-interpretation execution correction; model-informed development protocol
5: 
6: ## Correction
7: 
8: Protocol V1 correctly froze the coding schema, prompt allowlist, model
9: configurations, routing rules, and zero-ledger-output rule. It incorrectly
10: assumed the upstream 40-record envelope was stable while the workflow rebuilt
11: part of that union from a new stochastic Luna triage pass.
12: 
13: Run [33056429212](https://github.com/BYK/institutional-transition-lab/actions/runs/33056429212)
14: therefore coded a 40-record set that overlapped the intended pre-protocol
15: envelope on 39 records: Valkey #1356 entered and OpenTofu #727 left. ...

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/research/oss-governance-coding-protocol-v1.md</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: # Performance-blinded OSS governance coding protocol v1
2: 
3: Date frozen: 2026-08-27  
4: Status: pre-run, model-informed development protocol; not holdout evidence
5: 
6: ## Objective
7: 
8: Code the 40-record enriched governance audit envelope without exposing project
9: performance, fitted transitions, prior triage decisions, retrieval scores, or
10: expected outcomes. The output is an auditable adjudication package, not an
11: event ledger or canonical power graph.
12: 
13: ## Frozen response contract
14: 
15: The response ontology is frozen in
16: [`schema/governance-coding-v1.schema.json`](../schema/governance-coding-v1.schema.json).
17: Its SHA-256 is embedded in every coding bundle and response. The runner refuses
18: to execute if the checked-in schema and bundle hashes differ. ...

Found 1 matches
/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/research/oss-governance-coding-results-v1.2.md:
  Line 136: The next artifact is a source-level adjudication table for all 40 records. It

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/.gitignore</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: .DS_Store
2: .env
3: .venv/
4: __pycache__/
5: *.py[cod]
6: .pytest_cache/
7: .ruff_cache/
8: 
9: node_modules/
10: docs/.observable/
11: 
12: data/raw/**
13: data/derived/**
14: !data/raw/.gitkeep
15: !data/derived/.gitkeep
16: 
17: *.duckdb
18: *.db
19: 

(End of file - total 19 lines)
</content>

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/data/raw</path>
<type>directory</type>
<entries>
.gitkeep

(1 entries)
</entries>

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/data/derived</path>
<type>directory</type>
<entries>
.gitkeep

(1 entries)
</entries>

Found 26 matches
/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/docs/terraform-opentofu.html:
  Line 3:   <title>Terraform and OpenTofu — transition audit</title>

  Line 6:     # Terraform and OpenTofu: transition audit

  Line 10:     This development case asks whether independently detected performance

  Line 11:     transitions line up with changes in control, governance, or leadership. The

  Line 13:     robust transitions**. That is useful: it stops launch dynamics from being

  Line 52:     if root is not None and (root / "transition_robustness.csv").exists():

  Line 53:         with (root / "transition_robustness.csv").open(encoding="utf-8") as handle:

  Line 113:       ["Raw candidates", runSummary.candidate_transition_count],

  Line 114:       ["Robust transitions", runSummary.robust_transition_count],

  Line 133:     A transition is retained only if it reappears within one month across at

  Line 144:       robustnessChart.textContent = "No transition robustness data is ...

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/docs/terraform-opentofu.html</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: <!doctype html>
2: <notebook theme="light-dark(air, near-midnight)">
3:   <title>Terraform and OpenTofu — transition audit</title>
4: 
5:   <script type="text/markdown">
6:     # Terraform and OpenTofu: transition audit
7: 
8:     <link rel="stylesheet" href="./style.css">
9: 
10:     This development case asks whether independently detected performance
11:     transitions line up with changes in control, governance, or leadership. The
12:     honest result of the first complete run is **three raw candidates and zero
13:     robust transitions**. That is useful: it stops launch dynamics from being
14:     promoted into an institutional story.
15:   </script>
16: 
17:   <script type="text/x-python" output="monthly" format="json" hidden>
18:     import csv
19:     import json
20:     from pathlib import Path
21: 
22:     roots = [
23:         ...

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/cases/projects/terraform-opentofu.events.yaml</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: schema_version: 1
2: case_id: terraform-opentofu
3: 
4: coding:
5:   status: exploratory_seed
6:   reviewer_blinded_to_outcome: false
7:   note: >-
8:     This seed inventory was assembled after the pilot outcome series had been
9:     inspected. It may support exploration and report design, but it is not a
10:     blinded confirmatory event timeline.
11: 
12: events:
13:   - event_id: terraform-mitchell-board-exit-2021
14:     entity_id: terraform
15:     event_kind: board_or_steering
16:     event_role: institutional
17:     title: Mitchell Hashimoto leaves HashiCorp executive team and board
18:     announced_on: 2021-07-22
19:     effective_on: 2021-07-22
20:     affected_scope: HashiCorp leadership and board; indirect control of Terraform
21:     power_change: Founder loses executive-meeting access and formal board vote
22:     confidence: 1.0
23:   ...

(no output)

Found 14 matches
/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/research/session-handover-2026-08-27.md:
  Line 143: | Frozen coding run | [`33063470968`](https://github.com/BYK/institutional-transition-lab/actions/runs/33063470968) |

  Line 144: | Frozen artifact | `9642983578` |

  Line 145: | Document bundle SHA-256 | `d70f7f795847968339a645b6dbd6d4428af6bd6044de44fa2602d4c4343b0ee9` |

  Line 178: `d70f7f795847968339a645b6dbd6d4428af6bd6044de44fa2602d4c4343b0ee9`.


/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/research/oss-governance-enriched-audit-envelope-v1.md:
  Line 26: - Artifact: `9639245355`


/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/research/oss-governance-coding-results-v1.2.md:
  Line 48: `d70f7f795847968339a645b6dbd6d4428af6bd6044de44fa2602d4c4343b0ee9`.

  Line 124:   [33060493337](https://github.com/BYK/institutional-transition-lab/actions/runs/33060493337)

  Line 126:   [33063470968](https://github.com/BYK/institutional-transition-lab/actions/runs/33063470968)

  ...

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/research/session-handover-2026-08-27.md</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: # Institutional Transition Lab handover — 2026-08-27
2: 
3: ## Executive state
4: 
5: The repository is a reproducible research lab for testing whether changes in
6: institutional power precede changes in project performance. The Terraform /
7: OpenTofu pilot has produced a scientifically useful negative result, a working
8: GitHub-history pipeline, a source-retrieval and blinded coding pipeline, and a
9: cost-tested LLM triage policy.
10: 
11: The most important current boundary is:
12: 
13: > There are three raw statistical transition candidates, zero robust
14: > transitions, and zero records in a canonical institutional power ledger.
15: 
16: Do not present the current work as causal evidence that governance changed
17: project performance. ...

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<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/src/institution_lab/llm_event_probe.py</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
115:         return True
116:     if not isinstance(value, str):
117:         return False
118:     try:
119:         return date.fromisoformat(value).isoformat() == value
120:     except ValueError:
121:         return False
122: 
123: 
124: def _nonempty_string(value: object) -> bool:
125:     return isinstance(value, str) and bool(value.strip())
126: 
127: 
128: def _canonical_hash(payload: dict[str, Any]) -> str:
129:     encoded = json.dumps(payload, sort_keys=True, separators=(",", ":")).encode()
130:     return hashlib.sha256(encoded).hexdigest()
131: 
132: 
133: def validate_response(response: dict[str, Any], source_text: str) -> list[str]:
134:     """Return deterministic schema and evidence-grounding failures."""
135:     errors: list[str] = []
136:     keys = set(response)
137:     if keys != RESPONSE_KEYS:
138:         missing = sorted(RESPONSE_KEYS - ...

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/src/institution_lab/llm_event_probe.py</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
600:     }
601:     thresholds = labels_payload["quality_thresholds"]
602:     threshold_checks = {
603:         metric: {
604:             "value": metrics[metric],
605:             "threshold": float(thresholds[metric]),
606:             "passed": metrics[metric] >= float(thresholds[metric]),
607:         }
608:         for metric in sorted(QUALITY_METRICS)
609:     }
610:     contract_passed = bool(
611:         not contract_errors and schema_valid == total and quote_count > 0 and grounding_rate == 1.0
612:     )
613:     quality_gate_passed = all(check["passed"] for check in threshold_checks.values())
614:     summary = {
615:         "schema_version": 2,
616:         "benchmark_id": documents_payload["benchmark_id"],
617:         "label_status": labels_payload.get("label_status"),
618:         "outcome_blinded": labels_payload.get("outcome_blinded"),
619:    ...

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/tests/test_model_policy.py</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: from __future__ import annotations
2: 
3: from pathlib import Path
4: 
5: import pytest
6: 
7: from institution_lab.model_policy import load_event_triage_policy
8: 
9: 
10: def test_frozen_event_triage_policy_selects_gemini_only_for_triage() -> None:
11:     policy = load_event_triage_policy()
12:     assert policy["model"] == "gemini-3.7-flash"
13:     assert policy["reasoning_effort"] == "default"
14:     assert policy["selection_scope"] == "event_triage_only"
15:     assert "canonical_power_graph_serialization" in policy["not_authorized_for"]
16:     assert policy["selected_by"]["run_id"] == 33086454444
17:     assert policy["selected_by"]["artifact_id"] == 9652609349
18: 
19: 
20: def test_policy_rejects_scope_drift(tmp_path: Path) -> None:
21:     source = Path("cases/model-selection/event-triage-v1.json").read_text()
22:     changed = ...

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/src/institution_lab/contracts.py</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: """Stable records shared by ingestion, analysis, and report layers."""
2: 
3: from __future__ import annotations
4: 
5: from dataclasses import dataclass, field
6: from datetime import date
7: from enum import StrEnum
8: 
9: 
10: class EntityKind(StrEnum):
11:     COMPANY = "company"
12:     OSS_PROJECT = "oss_project"
13: 
14: 
15: class MetricRole(StrEnum):
16:     OUTCOME = "outcome"
17:     MEDIATOR = "mediator"
18:     CONTROL = "control"
19: 
20: 
21: class EventKind(StrEnum):
22:     LEADERSHIP = "leadership"
23:     BOARD_OR_STEERING = "board_or_steering"
24:     CONTROL_RIGHTS = "control_rights"
25:     REORGANIZATION = "reorganization"
26:     FOUNDATION_TRANSFER = "foundation_transfer"
27:     LICENSE = "license"
28:     FORK = "fork"
29:     REUNIFICATION = "reunification"
30:     CAPITAL_ALLOCATION = "capital_allocation"
31:     STRATEGY = ...

{"body":"## Objective\n\nTransform only completed, source-grounded adjudications into dated institutional power-graph diffs for Terraform/OpenTofu and the OSS comparison cases.\n\n## Dependency\n\nBlocked by completion of the frozen 40-record adjudication issue.\n\n## Required representation\n\nFor each effective or announced change, record:\n\n- actor\n- target\n- right kind\n- added/removed/modified direction\n- announcement and effective dates separately\n- scope\n- evidence reference\n- explicit/inferred/ambiguous status\n- predecessor/successor edge linkage for transfers\n\n## Acceptance criteria\n\n- Deterministic normalization handles actor aliases and equivalent edge encodings.\n- Announced future changes do not masquerade as effective changes.\n- Transfers are represented as paired removal/addition unless the same actor retains a modified right.\n- Every graph diff round-trips through a schema validator.\n- No performance outcome data enters graph construction.\n- A dated ...

bfc735a7d8602d1f236a88c2d23b195f0600a8bae86fb8c8936afe7883a41b8e  schema/governance-coding-v1.schema.json
2ee9dda0306fe11df574e42adb9ed27643473f8e5854faa0526a2c88141bbb93  cases/review/oss-governance-enriched-envelope-v1.json
06d4b3407677fe7fb23046f70164a366db06638e8a29af3daf7661f00d565933  research/oss-governance-coding-protocol-v1.2.md

opentofu-github-pr-2830 https://github.com/opentofu/opentofu/pull/2830 bounds= {'files_listing_complete': True, 'patch_selection_truncated': True, 'patch_unavailable_count': 0, 'source_text_truncated': False} metadata= {'base_sha': '6f0d3d3a07a49309b30960d57225c9f7c701e9a9', 'changed_files': 43, 'draft': False, 'head_sha': 'da4ac00ca09d1d9e06e47efd77523a235d49f10c', 'merge_commit_sha': '59d24390b712b87954ee175c38912e56d8f5d974', 'merged': True, 'merged_at': '2025-05-23T12:18:56Z', 'state': 'closed'} patches= [('patch:0', 'CHARTER.md', 13368), ('patch:1', 'GOVERNANCE.md', 5643), ('patch:2', 'CONTRIBUTING.md', 30989)]
opentofu-github-pr-2953 https://github.com/opentofu/opentofu/pull/2953 bounds= {'files_listing_complete': True, 'patch_selection_truncated': True, 'patch_unavailable_count': 0, 'source_text_truncated': False} metadata= {'base_sha': '3c170157023ac1290c89567ce432c35aa185099a', 'changed_files': 43, 'draft': False, 'head_sha': '5f5705b8947cd62834733e6c20635d8d13a616dd', ...

terraform-github-pr-22332 luna_a parsed True errors ['power_changes[0].evidence_refs[1] is not grounded', 'power_changes[0].evidence_refs[2] is not grounded']
terraform-github-pr-22745 luna_b parsed False errors ['invalid JSON: Extra data: line 1 column 680 (char 679)']
terraform-github-pr-33661 luna_a parsed True errors ['power_changes[0].evidence_refs[2] is not grounded']
terraform-github-pr-34847 luna_a parsed True errors ['power_changes[1].evidence_refs[1] is not grounded']
terraform-github-pr-38385 luna_a parsed True errors ['power_changes[0].evidence_refs[0] is not grounded']
terraform-github-pr-38385 luna_b parsed True errors ['power_changes[0].evidence_refs[0] is not grounded']
valkey-github-issue-4509 luna_a parsed True errors ['power_changes[0].evidence_refs[0] is not grounded']
valkey-github-pr-2927 terra_advisory parsed True errors ['power_changes[1].evidence_refs[0] is not grounded']

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Found 30 matches
/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/README.md:
  Line 91: Change-point detection operates only on these performance series. A transition

  Line 142: - performance series with shaded regimes, transition intervals, and event

  Line 275: coded without consulting project performance series, but the power-edge

  Line 364: candidates and **zero robust transitions**. All candidates occur during the

  Line 370: assembled after the pilot outcomes were inspected and is not blinded evidence.


/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/src/institution_lab/robustness.py:
  Line 34:     transition_on: date

  Line 133:                 transition_on=candidate,


/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/src/institution_lab/oss_pipeline.py:
  Line 85:                     "transition_on": dates[transition.index],

  Line 103:         "transition_on",

  Line 133:             for value in candidates["transition_on"]

  Line 269:         "robust_transition_count": ...

f2f970bc3041594f7d989d5517156fb4466ffc1787f54f579fc8f3ad8e6b2985 389362 derived/source-retrieval/oss-governance-development-v2/audit-envelope-enriched.json
08ce70392d4a88618d3db7b2f8de08a42a4e6fc105df2cd28b562e67193004e2 1092530 derived/source-retrieval/oss-governance-development-v2/documents.json
0e6ff64853e67c70e123832e7efae30fa2682ecda5ea0d0f739ecb971363d409 336307 derived/source-retrieval/oss-governance-development-v2/audit.json
2a62ab05687982c112a29f6126227c26c3ff8defc89ca64662753aaf85c3c0ce 445940 derived/source-retrieval/oss-governance-development-v2/coding/documents.json

entities Counter({'opentofu': 18, 'terraform': 12, 'valkey': 10})
types Counter({'github_pull_request': 26, 'github_issue': 14})
source_kinds Counter({'github_pr_patch': 110, 'github_body': 40, 'github_pr_metadata': 26})
no_patch_prs ['opentofu-github-pr-2959', 'opentofu-github-pr-3559', 'terraform-github-pr-34096', 'terraform-github-pr-34103']
bounded ['opentofu-github-pr-2830', 'opentofu-github-pr-2953', 'terraform-github-pr-33661', 'terraform-github-pr-34847', 'valkey-github-issue-4276', 'valkey-github-pr-1788']
pr_listing_not_complete []

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/src/institution_lab/github_client.py</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: """Small, cache-first client for reproducible GitHub REST ingestion."""
2: 
3: from __future__ import annotations
4: 
5: import hashlib
6: import json
7: import logging
8: import os
9: import time
10: from collections.abc import Callable
11: from dataclasses import dataclass
12: from datetime import UTC, datetime
13: from pathlib import Path
14: from typing import Any
15: from urllib.parse import urlencode
16: 
17: import httpx
18: 
19: LOGGER = logging.getLogger(__name__)
20: RETRYABLE_STATUS_CODES = frozenset({429, 500, 502, 503, 504})
21: 
22: 
23: class GitHubApiError(RuntimeError):
24:     """Raised when GitHub returns an unsuccessful or malformed response."""
25: 
26: 
27: @dataclass(frozen=True, slots=True)
28: class GitHubPage:
29:     data: list[dict[str, Any]]
30:     source_id: str
31:     url: str
32:     retrieved_at: str
33:     next_url: str | ...

preliminary-summary.json {'adjudication_count': 29, 'canonical_ledger_records': 0, 'coding_id': 'oss-governance-enriched-coding-v1', 'documents_sha256': 'd70f7f795847968339a645b6dbd6d4428af6bd6044de44fa2602d4c4343b0ee9', 'luna_a_invalid_count': 5, 'luna_b_invalid_count': 2, 'luna_class_agreement': 0.675, 'luna_strict_edge_agreement': 0.6, 'provisional_exact_agreement_count': 11, 'record_count': 40, 'route_reason_counts': {'abstention': 4, 'bounded_evidence': 6, 'class_disagreement': 13, 'edge_disagreement': 16, 'event_field_disagreement': 13, 'invalid_response': 6, 'low_confidence': 5}, 'schema_version': 1, 'terra_completed': False, 'terra_invalid_count': None}
summary.json {'adjudication_count': 29, 'canonical_ledger_records': 0, 'coding_id': 'oss-governance-enriched-coding-v1', 'documents_sha256': 'd70f7f795847968339a645b6dbd6d4428af6bd6044de44fa2602d4c4343b0ee9', 'luna_a_invalid_count': 5, 'luna_b_invalid_count': 2, 'luna_class_agreement': 0.675, 'luna_strict_edge_agreement': 0.6, ...

Found 100 matches (more matches available)
/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/src/institution_lab/llm_candidate_triage.py:
  Line 312:     arguments.validated_output.write_text(

  Line 315:     arguments.review_output.write_text(

  Line 318:     arguments.summary_output.write_text(

  Line 322:     arguments.markdown_output.write_text(markdown, encoding="utf-8")


/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/src/institution_lab/source_retrieval.py:
  Line 81:     transition_dates_excluded: bool

  Line 157:     for forbidden in ("events", "transitions", "transition_dates", "performance_outcomes"):

  Line 164:     if document.get("transition_dates_excluded") is not True:

  Line 165:         raise ValueError("transition_dates_excluded must be true")

  Line 257:         transition_dates_excluded=True,

  Line 482:         "transition_dates_excluded": protocol.transition_dates_excluded,

  Line 499:         "transition_dates_excluded": protocol.transition_dates_excluded,

  ...

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/tests/test_source_retrieval.py</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: from __future__ import annotations
2: 
3: import httpx
4: import pytest
5: 
6: from institution_lab.github_client import GitHubRestClient
7: from institution_lab.source_retrieval import collect_source_candidates, validate_protocol
8: 
9: 
10: def _protocol() -> dict[str, object]:
11:     return {
12:         "schema_version": 1,
13:         "collection_id": "retrieval-test-v1",
14:         "design_status": "development",
15:         "transition_dates_excluded": True,
16:         "outcome_data_used": False,
17:         "study_period": {"start": "2024-01-01", "end": "2024-12-31"},
18:         "entities": [{"entity_id": "example", "repository": "acme/example"}],
19:         "queries": [
20:             {"query_id": "governance", "family": "governance", "term": "governance"},
21:             {"query_id": "license", "family": "licensing", "term": "license"},
22:            ...

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/cases/benchmarks/oss-institutional-events-v1.documents.json</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: {
2:   "schema_version": 2,
3:   "benchmark_id": "oss-institutional-events-v1",
4:   "note": "Label-free, bounded excerpts for measuring event extraction. The runner exposes only entity_id, publisher, published_on, and text to the model; IDs, URLs, provenance metadata, labels, and thresholds remain outside the prompt.",
5:   "documents": [
6:     {
7:       "document_id": "hashicorp-bsl-announcement",
8:       "entity_id": "terraform",
9:       "publisher": "HashiCorp",
10:       "published_on": "2023-08-10",
11:       "source_url": "https://www.hashicorp.com/en/blog/hashicorp-adopts-business-source-license",
12:       "source_type": "primary_source_excerpt",
13:       "source_context": "Curated excerpt from the linked source.",
14:       "text": "HashiCorp is changing its source code license from Mozilla Public License v2.0 (MPL 2.0) to ...

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/cases/model-selection/event-triage-v1.json</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
1: {
2:   "schema_version": 1,
3:   "policy_id": "event-triage-cost-frontier-v1",
4:   "role": "event_candidate_discovery_and_triage",
5:   "model": "gemini-3.7-flash",
6:   "reasoning_effort": "default",
7:   "selection_scope": "event_triage_only",
8:   "effective_on": "2026-08-27",
9:   "selected_by": {
10:     "run_id": 33086454444,
11:     "artifact_id": 9652609349,
12:     "artifact_sha256": "44ea0132eb7416e2c4ad530e66b4e5c672700fd0eb2d9db6be5e5cb196bcd2d0",
13:     "documents_sha256": "d0958b48ed916b9b42d324859615a1a0ad8aa61f026a937ac90733c4e703fd7e",
14:     "labels_sha256": "aef3b43ef642ca92ce55e35c5a4cc6786d7b42aa0476d4eec8b248fa73199149"
15:   },
16:   "not_authorized_for": [
17:     "canonical_power_graph_serialization",
18:     "causal_identification",
19:     "performance_outcome_interpretation"
20:   ]
21: }

(End of file - total 21 ...

<path>/home/byk/Code/institutional-transition-lab/tests/test_llm_event_probe.py</path>
<type>file</type>
<content>
110:         "decision": "control_event",
111:         "event_kind": "product",
112:         "title": "Project releases version 2.0",
113:         "announced_on": "2025-02-03",
114:         "effective_on": "2025-02-03",
115:         "affected_scope": "Project release",
116:         "power_changes": [],
117:         "evidence_quotes": [quote],
118:         "confidence": 0.99,
119:         "ambiguity": None,
120:     }
121: 
122: 
123: def test_evaluates_grounded_responses_with_separate_labels() -> None:
124:     responses = [
125:         {
126:             "benchmark_id": "example",
127:             "document_id": "ownership",
128:             "source_url": "https://example.com/ownership",
129:             "model_input_fields": ["entity_id", "publisher", "published_on", "text"],
130:             "model": "gpt-5.6-luna",
131:             "reasoning_effort": "medium",
132:  ...